Last week, following the CPI and PPI data, US retail sales unexpectedly weakened in July, further cooling market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the next two meetings. The pressure on July sales data somewhat alleviated concerns about an overheated US economy. This decline in retail sales suggests that the weakness in July may not fully reflect deteriorating demand, but is more likely related to changes in the pace of promotions. For the market, this timing misalignment also complicates the assessment of short-term inflation and consumption trends.

The US dollar continued its decline last week, remaining below 100.00 and hitting a new low after the fourth consecutive day of weak US data. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for August fell to 51 from 55.2, far below expectations; therefore, market bets on a Fed rate hike in September further weakened. There are no top-tier data releases for the dollar in the coming week. Instead, the minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released on Wednesday, will be the focus, providing details behind the hawkish divergence that unsettled the market at the end of last month.

Last week, supported by Chinese policy, the yuan strengthened, rising to 6.7400, its strongest level since February 2023, driven by a weaker dollar and declining US yields. The People's Bank of China reiterated its accommodative stance and targeted support while avoiding explicit signals of interest rate cuts or reductions in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds (CGB) fell below 1.70%.

Last week, Mohber, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, explicitly stated that if Iran's conditions were not met, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had made a strategic decision for offensive war. This was not simply military intimidation, but the strongest escalation signal released by Iran's top leadership after careful assessment. This statement completely put the ball in Washington's court—either accept Iran's conditions and restart negotiations, or face a sharp escalation of military conflict in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, oil prices remained supported by the US-Iran situation, especially towards the weekend, with Iran warning of a potential escalation and increased uncertainty in the Middle East.

Last Week's Market Performance Recap:

Last week, US stocks retreated slightly after hitting record highs, but the S&P 500 still recorded its third consecutive weekly gain. Investors continued to digest the positive impact of this week's moderate inflation data, while also beginning to reassess the risks of slowing US consumption, employment, and economic growth. The S&P 500 closed at 7785.76 points, up 0.4%, marking its third consecutive weekly gain; the Nasdaq Composite also rose for the third consecutive week, gaining slightly by 0.1% to 26729.16 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, fell 0.6% to close at 53732.41 points.

Last week, spot gold rose 0.8% to $4375.80 per ounce, briefly hitting a ten-week high during the session. US July CPI data met expectations, coupled with an unexpected decline in retail sales, further strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause rate hikes in September, providing strong support for gold prices, despite intermittent pressure from a stronger dollar and profit-taking. A Wall Street survey shows that 90% of analysts are bullish on the market outlook, with 68% of retail investors also holding a bullish view. Next week, the market focus will be on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, hoping to glean more clues about the future policy path.

Silver prices rebounded last week, closing at around $64,530 per ounce, with a weekly gain of over 1.5%. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data suggested that the energy price shock related to the conflict with Iran eased in July, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices, reigniting inflation concerns and bringing uncertainty to the precious metals market.

The contraction in non-farm payrolls on August 7, the more moderate consumer price reading on August 12, and the flat producer price reading on August 13 failed to push the dollar index out of its range. Friday's data finally did. July retail sales contracted 0.6% month-on-month, while the market consensus was for a 0.1% increase; the preliminary consumer confidence index for August came in at 51, below the market consensus of 54.5. The US dollar index opened near a session high of 100.00, then fell below 99.50, eventually closing at 99.65.

The euro/dollar pair closed last week at the upper end of its 1.1569 range, hitting a two-month high and approaching 1.1600. The Eurozone schedule was largely uneventful: Germany's ZEW survey will be released on Tuesday. Friday's preliminary PMI will be the main domestic test. Given the ECB's continued preference to hold rates steady, the pair remains primarily driven by the dollar's movements. The dollar/yen pair closed last week at the lower end of its 159.00 range, with a weaker yen offsetting a weaker dollar, following significant volatility earlier this month. Japan has a busier week than usual, with second-quarter GDP released on Sunday (market expectations are 0.5%) and national inflation data to be released later this week.

The pound/dollar pair closed last week trading near 1.3540, close to a three-month high. Tuesday will see the release of the UK labor market report, Wednesday's July inflation data (with the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to accelerate to around 3%), and Friday's retail sales figures. Strong inflation data would complicate the Bank of England's policy path and could provide new support for the pound/dollar; weak data, however, would bring the pair its first real domestic drag in weeks. The Australian dollar/US dollar pair traded near 0.7085, its best level in two months. With the Reserve Bank of Australia having already held its meeting, market attention is now focused on Thursday's employment report, which is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth compared to June, and also on China. Monday's Chinese industrial production and retail sales data, along with Thursday's People's Bank of China decision, will influence the Australian dollar's movement as much as domestic factors.

Last week, crude oil prices exceeded $81 per barrel, rising nearly 6% for the week, as the US increased economic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also warned that the global supply gap will widen, predicting the worst shortage in five years in 2026. In the Red Sea, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels launched an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan oil refinery. Meanwhile, more Middle Eastern crude oil is expected to arrive in the United States, providing some relief to low inventory levels.

Bitcoin fell back to around $63,500 before the weekend, down more than 0.5% on the day and nearly 2% on the week. While market sentiment eased somewhat after US July inflation data largely met expectations, there was no significant expansion in risk appetite; traders' attention has shifted to the test of the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies.

The US bond market has seen significant volatility recently, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by more than 20 basis points in just a few trading days, marking its largest weekly increase in nearly two months. Investors generally hope that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.65%. Overall, the bond market's reaction was not an emotional outburst, but rather a normal manifestation of the price discovery mechanism. Trillions of dollars are voting on policy paths with real money every trading day; this collective wisdom often captures risk changes better than any single model.

Market Outlook This Week:

This week (August 17-August 21), global markets will see an extremely dense release of macroeconomic data and policy events: from China's July real economy picture to the Fed meeting minutes, and the preliminary manufacturing PMI figures for major global economies.

Amidst the current interplay of soaring US Treasury yields, cooling inflation, and expectations of a Fed rate cut, each data point could become a trigger for market shifts. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index, as a leading indicator for the second half of the year in the US, can be used to observe the extent to which the Fed's high interest rates are squeezing real manufacturing.

A potential trigger for a style shift. To help investors seize opportunities and mitigate risks amidst market volatility, here's a summary of key daily highlights and practical strategies for next week:

Market bets on a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have further weakened. There are no top-tier data releases for the US dollar next week. Instead, the minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released on Wednesday, will be the focus, providing details behind the hawkish disagreements that unsettled markets at the end of last month.

Conclusion:

The main market theme next week can be summarized as: "Domestically, the strength of the recovery driven by policy implementation; internationally, the Fed's shift amid slowing inflation and debt pressures."

Equity Market: Remain calm and observe, focusing on Monday's domestic economic data and Thursday's LPR quotes for their guidance on pro-cyclical sectors;

Gold/Commodities: After digesting the high 5.22% US Treasury yield, gold may see a second wave of rebound if Thursday's Fed minutes are dovish or Friday's PMI falls short of expectations; crude oil, however, needs to be wary of disorderly fluctuations due to the contract rollover date;

Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income: Watch for opportunities to buy US Treasuries on dips following the rise and fall of US Treasury yields, and the corrective effect of the dollar index's pullback on non-US currencies.

US Inflation Continues to Cool, Fed Likely to Maintain Interest Rates

Following weaker-than-expected July employment data, another dovish US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been released, further fueling market skepticism about the Fed's hawkish officials' determination to raise interest rates this year. I believe four core factors will drive inflation down, and I expect the Fed to maintain current interest rates for an extended period. However, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16th approaching, the market will also see a new round of employment and inflation data, as well as the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Therefore, this data release is unlikely to trigger significant market volatility.

Four Supporting Factors: Inflation Will Continue to Cool Until 2027

1. Gasoline Prices Continue to Depress Overall Inflation

Currently, international oil prices are around $83 per barrel, corresponding to a reasonable retail price range of $3.8 per gallon for gasoline in the US. The average market price according to the American Automobile Association (AAA) is $4 per gallon, with the premium stemming from a short-term rise in refining margins. If shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resumes and crude oil supply becomes smooth, refining margins will narrow, leading to a decline in gasoline retail prices and continuing to drag down overall inflation.

2. The Housing Sub-item with the Highest Weighting Will Continue to Lower Inflation

Housing accounts for as much as 35% of the CPI basket of goods and services, currently showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. High housing prices coupled with high mortgage rates have significantly weakened purchasing power, and current housing transaction volumes have fallen back to the sluggish levels seen after the 2008-2012 global financial crisis. Data shows that national home prices rose by only 1%, and rental prices in an increasing number of states have fallen. We expect that housing, the highest-weighted component, will continue to suppress overall inflation over the next 12 months.

3. Cooling Labor Costs and Easing Wage Inflation Pressures

The biggest cost for businesses is not technology investment, tariffs, or energy, but labor costs. In 2022, the ratio of unemployed to job vacancies in the US was 1:2, indicating a severe labor shortage; now, supply and demand are basically balanced, and the wage bubble has largely deflated. At the same time, the voluntary turnover rate (a core indicator of labor market liquidity) has declined significantly, meaning companies do not need to drastically increase wages to retain employees. The employment cost index shows that private sector wages grew by only 3.1% year-on-year, in line with the average hourly wage growth rate, a level perfectly aligned with the 2% inflation target.

4. The Price Increase Effect of Tariffs is Quickly Fading

Imposing tariffs only pushes up prices one-time, representing a temporary shock. With the current easing of US tariff policies and a significant increase in exemptions, the inflationary effect of tariffs will quickly dissipate.

The Treasury Department has already refunded the "Liberation Day" tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which were previously repealed by the Supreme Court. The revenue generated from the new tariffs in May has been fully offset by these refunds; in June, the Treasury's total tariff refunds exceeded all tariff revenue for the period by $25.5 billion. July data, to be released later today, may show a further increase in refunds. Improved corporate cash flow can offset rising costs in other areas, consolidating the deflationary trend.

"Chip Inflation" Concerns Overstated

The market is worried that data center construction will drive up semiconductor demand, fueling "chip inflation," and expects a collective price increase for electronic products such as laptops, mobile phones, and game consoles. However, this logic has significant flaws: computer and communication products account for only 0.7% of the CPI basket, far less than housing which accounts for 35%; furthermore, this category uses hedonic pricing, meaning upgrades in product quality are directly translated into price reductions.

Data shows that the CPI for smartphones fell by 10.9% year-on-year, but the basic selling price of the products did not increase—cameras, battery life, and chip performance have all been upgraded, allowing consumers to buy higher-spec products within the same budget, which is directly reflected in price reductions in inflation statistics.

Conclusion:

The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged for a long time.

The Fed has failed to achieve its inflation target for the past five years, but the current downward trend in inflation is clear, residents' inflation expectations are within a controllable range, and energy price increases have not yet triggered a second round of nationwide price increases. Meanwhile, market inflation expectations are stable, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate in line with the 25-year average.

Although the market is still betting on a Fed rate hike this year, I believe the Fed is more likely to maintain current interest rates for a long time, and the wait-and-see period for rate cuts may continue until 2027.

The 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.7%, while the dollar is hovering around 100. What is the market pricing in?

Last week, the dollar index traded around 100, with limited fluctuations throughout the week. The special feature of the current market is not just that the dollar index has fallen back to around 100, but that the monetary policy pricing mechanism is changing. Since taking office, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has reduced reliance on explicit forward guidance, forcing the market to place greater weight on economic data, term premiums, and its own information. Simultaneously, both the exchange rate and bond markets are in a phase of recalibrating policy paths.

From a market structure perspective, the US dollar index has recently fallen rapidly from around 101.64 (the high on July 28th) and is currently trading around 100. It is noteworthy that the price movement from around 101.64 to around 99.41 occurred during a period of market reassessment of the Fed's policy communication methods, thus its implications extend beyond short-term exchange rate fluctuations. Kevin Warsh officially took office as Fed Chairman on May 22nd. On July 29th, the Fed voted 9-3 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. This means that the current pricing of dollar assets is not facing a simple rate-cutting or rate-hike cycle, but rather an environment where policy rates, inflation risks, and term premiums simultaneously influence the market.

A key reason why Warsh's recent policy communications have attracted attention is that he has reduced the possibility of the market locking in the policy path through the central bank's language. The financial logic behind this approach is not complex. When central banks consistently provide very clear interest rate paths, market participants gradually reduce their reliance on their own information and focus more on the central bank's wording, forecasts, and policy hints. Over time, asset prices may reflect more of a prediction of central bank behavior than an independent assessment of economic fundamentals. The potential effect of reducing forward guidance is to allow interest rates to again incorporate more economic information and risk premiums.

Wash stated in July that the Fed's commitment to price stability and full employment remains unchanged, while emphasizing that the policy framework, analytical tools, and policy methods all need to be re-examined.

However, this communication model comes at a clear cost. With reduced forward guidance, uncertainty about the policy path increases, the term premium in medium- and long-term interest rates may widen, and the market may interpret the same economic data more fragmentedly.

A noteworthy phenomenon is the lack of a mechanical one-to-one correspondence between the US dollar and US long-term Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.7%, while the 30-year yield is above 5%. In contrast, the US dollar index remains around 100. This combination suggests that rising long-term yields cannot be simply interpreted as a shift in monetary policy expectations towards tightening.

Long-term Treasury yields can be broken down into expectations of future short-term interest rates and the term premium. If investors demand higher term compensation, even if long-term yields rise, it does not necessarily mean that the market has simultaneously increased its expectations for policy rates.

This is also an important background factor for the current performance of the US dollar index.

When interest rate fluctuations are more driven by the term premium than by future policy rates themselves, the US dollar's sensitivity to changes in US Treasury yields may differ from traditional environments. Therefore, observing only the absolute level of the 10-year yield is insufficient to explain all fluctuations in the US dollar index.

US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Over the past 12 months, nonfarm payrolls have averaged an increase of approximately 34,000 per month. The employment data reflects a clear departure from the previous period of rapid expansion in the labor market. On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-on-year in June, with energy prices rising 15.7% year-on-year. This is precisely where the most significant changes in market mechanisms have occurred since the reduction in forward guidance.

In the past, traders could often construct relatively continuous policy paths using central bank communications. Now, the same inflation or employment data needs to answer three questions simultaneously: how does it change policy rate expectations, how does it change term premiums, and whether it changes the market's perception of the credibility of the Federal Reserve's policies?

Conclusion:

The US dollar index is trading around the 100 area; therefore, the apparent narrow range consolidation actually corresponds to a readjustment of the interest rate pricing mechanism.

Peace Signals and Deadly Attacks Arrive on the Same Day: Oil Market Experiences Extreme Rollercoaster Ride, Who is Being Slaughtered by Both Bulls and Bears?

The situation in the Middle East presents an unusual two-way tug-of-war. On one hand, the joint mediation by Pakistan and Qatar/Oman sends a clear signal that the US and Iran are close to negotiations, causing oil prices to plummet during trading. On the other hand, the first confirmed Houthi attack in the Red Sea resulted in the deaths of three crew members, instantly igniting shipping risk premiums. International crude oil prices experienced a rollercoaster ride, while gold oscillated between safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, with the market entering a highly volatile mode driven by geopolitical news. Last week's market narrative was filled with a sharp contrast between "peace hopes" and "war realities." The intensive diplomatic efforts forced some oil bulls to take profits, but the first civilian crew member deaths in the Red Sea signify a qualitative change in the intensity of the conflict. For traders, this is no longer a simple "buy the rumor, sell the fact" game—when signs of de-escalation and evidence of escalation arrive simultaneously, position management becomes more important than directional judgment. This article will analyze how these two forces are tearing apart asset pricing.

Core Analysis

Crude Oil: A Dual Narrative Tears Apart the Market, Emerging as Both Bulls and Bears Suffer

In the past two hours, Brent crude oil experienced a sharp drop that was quite damaging. After reaching a high near the psychological level of $90, it plunged by about $2, falling to a low of $87.17. The trigger came from two consecutive diplomatic news items:

Last week, the spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Minister stated that negotiations between Oman and Iran had entered an "advanced stage," and that positive feedback had been received from both sides; simultaneously, the Pakistani Defense Minister publicly judged that the signals from the US and Iran were "evolving in a direction favorable to peace," and the Pakistani Interior Minister had arrived in Tehran to mediate.

These two pieces of information directly hit the core logic that had previously driven the price up. Last week, oil prices experienced a rollercoaster ride, with significant ups and downs. The market was pricing in an extreme scenario: traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would plummet to single digits, and a full-blown confrontation between the US and Iran. However, the simultaneous efforts of diplomatic channels in Pakistan and Qatar forced the market to reassess the probabilities—a return to the negotiating table was no longer out of reach, leading to a concentrated round of profit-taking on the geopolitical premium in crude oil.

But the bears' logic also had cracks. Houthi attacks on Red Sea merchant ships escalated dangerously: the Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship Tihamah was hit by an unidentified projectile near the port of Moka, killing three crew members, including two Pakistanis and one Indonesian. This was the first confirmed civilian casualties in a ship attack since the conflict began. The Houthis had previously announced an expanded blockade of Saudi Arabia, and this death could very well be the trigger for further hardline actions from all sides. The support for crude oil had not collapsed, but rather shifted its anchor—from the "Hormuz blockade expectation" to the "Red Sea shipping premium."

The core dilemma traders currently face is that both news paths are true and progressing simultaneously, and any one-way bet is at risk of being hit by reverse news.

Shipping: Deaths Change Risk Characteristics, Freight Rate Pricing Power is Shifting

The Red Sea attack has shifted shipping risk from "insurable commercial interference" to "a significant threat to personnel safety." The confirmation of the three crew deaths will trigger shipowners and insurance companies to reassess the risk boundaries of shipping routes, making a jump in premiums and an increase in crew risk allowances almost inevitable. Coupled with the reality that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has already dropped to single digits, the volatility of VLCC and product tanker freight rates is rising sharply.

In the medium to long term, if the Red Sea blockade expands and the Strait of Hormuz traffic disruptions resonate, the global oil supply chain will face a double squeeze of tonnage shortages and increased shipping distances. This is not just a matter of rising freight rates; it could also create regional bottlenecks in refined oil supply—the delayed restart of Saudi Arabia's Aramco Jizan refinery (400,000 barrels/day) due to the Houthi attacks until August 30th is a micro-level example.

Conclusion In the short term, the market's absolute control remains in the hands of Middle Eastern news. Diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and Qatar could lead to a clear statement that the US and Iran are substantially back on the negotiating table. Conversely, if the Red Sea ship attack deaths trigger further retaliatory actions or an expanded blockade, oil prices have the momentum to retest $90 and higher levels, and shipping rates will enter a non-linear upward phase.

Gold: Fed Rate Hike Risk Limits Upside

Gold prices continued their upward trend after July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations, reinforcing the dovish narrative surrounding Fed Chairman Warsh. With gold prices briefly exceeding $4,400 per ounce, and resistance at $4,450 per ounce (Thursday's high), Below the $4,500 psychological level, gold prices will likely remain near the upper end of a higher trading range. However, I believe it's premature to declare a breakout to $5,000 per ounce.

Gold prices rose to a more than two-month high due to moderate US inflation in July and market downward revisions of September rate hike bets. However, tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, exacerbating inflation concerns and potentially supporting expectations of further Fed rate hikes, thus suppressing gold. With both positive data and geopolitical risks present, gold prices will continue to be influenced by multiple factors in the short term, and the future direction of inflation and oil prices will require close monitoring.

Fed Path Limits Gold Prices

With upward momentum pushing prices to $4,450 per ounce and CTA buy triggers around $4,468 per ounce, the yellow metal may soon challenge resistance levels below $4,500 per ounce. A decisive break above this level may require stronger confirmation that the Fed will not raise rates this year. Therefore, gold prices are likely to remain near the upper end of the current trading range, which has clearly shifted upwards since July. However, it is premature to assert that gold prices will break through $5,000 per ounce.

Until then, if it does happen, the gold market should remain at the upper limit of its recent higher trading range. Without new inflationary pressures, gold prices will continue to rise, and the $5,000 mark is a very realistic possibility.

The escalating tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices may pose a threat to gold prices.

The continued tensions in the Middle East have not simply supported gold as traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset; instead, they are exerting potential downward pressure on gold prices through the oil price channel. Negotiations between the US and Iran aimed at ending the war have stalled. A senior Iranian source clearly stated that the two sides have not discussed extending the ceasefire, because from Tehran's perspective, the agreement itself has no clear effective date, and therefore there is no issue of extension.

Conclusion Gold's Outlook Amidst a Complex interplay of forces

In summary, the recent gold price surge is a result of a confluence of factors: inflation data meeting expectations, cooling bets on a Fed rate hike, escalating Middle East geopolitical risks, and a technical breakout. In the short term, the market will closely monitor Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Friday's retail sales data, which will determine the direction of further adjustments to rate hike expectations. If subsequent data continues to show moderate inflation and slowing economic momentum, gold is likely to maintain its strength; conversely, if oil prices surge due to escalating conflict and drive up inflation expectations, gold prices may face downward pressure.

In the longer term, gold's attractiveness depends not only on the path of real interest rates but also on the ebb and flow of global risk appetite and safe-haven demand. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation, volatility in the US dollar, and policy divergence among major central banks will continue to influence gold prices in the coming weeks. For investors, the current environment presents both opportunities and requires a high degree of sensitivity to macroeconomic data and geopolitical dynamics. Gold prices have reached a two-month high, but the real test may have just begun—in the triple interplay of data, policy, and conflict, the next move for gold remains highly uncertain. In the short term, pay close attention to the resistance level around 4500, which is the 200-day moving average.

Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week

Monday (August 17): Japan's preliminary annualized nominal GDP for the second quarter (in billions of yen); Canada's July core consumer price index - commonly used index (year-on-year); Japan's August NAHB housing price index

Tuesday (August 18): UK June unemployment rate; US July NAR seasonally adjusted pending home sales index (month-on-month)

Wednesday (August 19): UK July unadjusted producer input price index (year-on-year); UK July consumer price index (year-on-year); UK July retail price index (year-on-year); Eurozone July final consumer price index (year-on-year)

Thursday (August 20): Australia's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Australia's July full-time employment change (thousands); US initial jobless claims for the previous week (thousands) (to August 15); US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday (August 21): Japan July National Consumer Price Index (YoY); UK July Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales (MoM); Eurozone August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Preliminary); UK August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Preliminary); US August S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers' Index (Preliminary)

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